Overall, in the first half of this year China’s economic downward pressure is still large. Main economic indicators of investment in fixed assets, industrial production and foreign trade export growth is low, cause the national steel demand remains weak, all requirements (including direct export) more than 5% year-on-year growth, including domestic demand growth (including digestive carryover stocks last year) is about 3%.
To grow the economy downward pressure to the decision-making departments since the second half of 2014, constantly increase the intensity of steady growth, including the active fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, increase investment in infrastructure, a stable demand for housing policy, as well as reduce the decentralization, the steel demand environment to improve. Now these policy stimulus effects have been revealed. In may this year the national fixed asset investment grew by 9.9% year on year, growth than last month, up 0.3%; In may, the national industrial growth of 6.1%, higher than 0.2% in April, for two months; Foreign trade exports in May fell (renminbi) had been narrowed by 3.4% in April. The real estate market, the main data are improved. According to statistics, the end of may this year the national commercial housing sale area, fell 15 square meters, is the first reduction since the real estate downturn. Negative growth of home sales for four months of the year for the first time confirmation, in the first five months year-on-year growth of 3.1%. At the same time, the national commercial housing sales prices stabilising picks up, especially the first-tier cities rise in price, thus stimulating the development of real estate investment. 1-5 month, new construction area of the national real estate investment, land purchase area appears narrow decline, according to real estate investment has a positive sign. However, due to the current economic downward pressure does not completely disappear, the operation and regulation policy space is very big, is expected to steady growth in various aspects will be overweight.
Because of time lag effect and policy effect more at the steady growth in the second half of the show. The analysis thinks, the people’s bank of China), fiscal policy and monetary policy adjustment to the positive role of the real economy will peak after six to nine months. The monetary policy adjustment’s influence on the economic growth rate will peak in the ninth month, in 5 months to 60% of the peak; Fiscal policy adjustment’s influence on the economic growth rate will peak in the fifth month. On the basis of the analysis, the second half of 2014 the stimulus effect of developed, may in this year to the third quarter was released, that is to say, early on the steady growth of regulation will be a positive effect in the second half of this year.
Not only that, but also because now the national house prices stabilised, first-tier cities prices moderate upward, is expected in the second half of the rigid demand in the market, there will be more drive part and the investment demand, and government entities at all levels many inventory, real estate market will continue to rebound, and start slow channel, have positive impact on the real economy industry in many aspects.
Its driving experience before April low economic growth this year, is expected in 5 start positive economic indicators, decline in economic growth in the second quarter, 3, 4 quarter continues to rebound, the year is expected to achieve slightly higher than 7% in the growth of a bit, the second half of the economic growth may be higher than 0.4% in the first half of the year. China’s overall economic situation gradually improved, the main investment in fixed assets, the real estate market, industrial production and other economic indicators bottoming out, is bound to make the second half of the domestic steel demand environment stability, actual demand (including early inventory digestion) increased to more than 3% year-on-year growth.